Why the IMF’s “historic” decision about China is irrelevant… and hilarious!

renminbi Simon Black – They called it a “historic moment in international finance”.

And so with great fanfare, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced yesterday that they would be including China’s renminbi in the basket of currencies that comprise their institutional monetary unit, the SDR.

The IMF invented the SDR back in 1969 to be used as a foreign exchange reserve held by governments and central banks.

Now, the SDR is nothing fancy. It’s really only something that economists and central bankers fawn over, with no real impact on anyone else.

Even the IMF considers the SDR’s role in international financial markets to be “insignificant”.

But that’s not all that makes the IMFs decision completely irrelevant.

For starters, just look at how they reconfigured the percentage weights of other currencies in the SDR basket to make room for the renminbi.

The British pound’s weight in the SDR will fall from 11% to 8%, the Japanese Yen from 9% to 8%, the Euro from 37% to 31%.

Conspicuously absent from this list of demotions is the United States dollar, which maintains a rock-solid 42% weighting.

In doing this, the IMF proves itself to be nothing more than a lapdog of the US.

More importantly, who cares about the SDR?

The market has already been rapidly adopting the renminbi for years.

It is today already the fourth most widely used currency in all international payments. And the renminbi ranks second for global issuances in letters of credit. Continue reading

What China’s Devaluation Means For The Future Of The Dollar

Simon Black – As the saying goes, “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.” (… to which George W. Bush famously added after flubbing the aphorism on live TV, “can’t fool me again!”)

currencyFor months, despite every shred of data pointing to a weaker economy, China’s currency has been strengthening.

This was really counterintuitive. When an economy is weak, its currency tends to suffer.

But that didn’t happen in China.

Even when China’s stock market suffered one of the biggest crashes in history a few weeks ago, the currency barely moved.

None of this made any sense.

Just look at Greece– problems in that single nation, one of the smallest economies in Europe, dragged down the currency used by 18 other nations in Europe to its lowest level in more than a decade.

But when problems broke in China, the renminbi actually got stronger. And party bosses insisted that they would not devalue their currency.

Fool me once.

Yesterday they showed the world what their promises really mean: nothing. And in a surprise announcement, they devalued the renminbi by roughly 2%.

2% might not sound like very much. But in currency markets, especially for a major one like China’s, 2% is a huge move.

Curiously, in the very same announcement, Chinese officials stated that they would not devalue the currency again, and that Tuesday’s move was a one-time thing.

Fool me twice.

Less than 24-hours later they did it again — a second devaluation that saw the renminbi tumble to as low as 6.57 per US dollar, a 6% decline in roughly 36 hours.

Continue reading