TheOutsiderClub October 30 2013 (Thanks, Kevin)
Signs Of Change Growing…
A lot has gone wrong over the past few years.
Many would say America isn’t quite what she used to be…
From bank-induced subprime mortgage fraud to market collapses, uncontrollable Washington spending to IRS, FBI, and NSA scandals, it’s easy to see that something is very wrong.
The good news is that one season always turns to the next. And when this “American Winter,” as I’m calling it, comes to an end… it will usher in an “American Spring” that will send our country soaring to new heights.
It will be a years-long transition, but you can already see the seeds of real change — not political slogan “change” — being planted today.
Let me show you what I mean…
The Fourth Turning
I’ve already shared with you the theory of the Fourth Turning put forth 15 years ago by William Strauss and Neil Howe.
A few Outsiders have written to me about it, and I’d like to share one of those letters with you today. From member Phil H.:
I just watched your video about the “Fourth Turning,” by Strauss and Howe (S&H). I read the book in 2012, after reading a series of blog articles centered around it.
I too was taken aback at the accuracy of S&Hs’ predictions. The only things missing from your analysis is that the current Fourth Turning has a bit to go yet. Most Fourth Turnings are not complete without a total war being fought (the last three Fourth Turnings in American history ended with total wars), and the skirmishes in Iraq and Afghanistan don’t count as total wars.
I also think S&H were pointing to a bigger economic downturn than the crash of 2008 was — one that is yet to arrive. I am an older Baby Boomer (born (1946-1964), and made note of their prediction that the Silent Generation (born 1925-1942) is the last generation that will receive full Social Security. S&H predicted that we Boomers will retire on scraps of Simplified Employee Pension Plans (SEPs), IRAs, 401(k)s, and the like, and alluded that we will be getting mostly IOUs for any government benefits we rate. S&H made dire predictions for Boomers and unequivocally stated we would live retirements based on steeply diminished material consumption.
S&H also said the Millennial generation (your generation, born 1982-2004) is the next generation of Heroes. I have already told my 28-year-old daughter that her generation will save our nation. I also told her to vote against my interests when it finally comes down to cutting my generation’s Social Security.
The Fourth Turning was a fascinating story, and I hope you write some more articles about it. I also hope that the Shale Oil & Gas Revolution can take some of the edge off of S&Hs’ dire predictions for the next few years.
Great story, enjoyed seeing it. Keep up the good work!
Phil H.
In Fourth Turning fashion, the U.S. House is already making a move for Social Security.
The Debt Limit Reform Act (H.R. 3293) was introduced earlier this month by Representative Alcee Hastings of Florida. He’s one of only eight federal officials in American history to be impeached and removed from office (bribery and perjury, 1988).
Of course, the Debt Limit Reform Act doesn’t reform the debt limit at all…
Instead, as its summary says on govtrack.us:
10/15/2013 — Introduced.
Debt Limit Reform Act – Grants the President, or the President’s designee, authority to increase the public debt limit. Excludes from the public debt limit amount obligations held by the U.S. government.
It’s that “excludes” part I want to discuss…
This bill would allow the government to exclude money it owes to “intragovernmental agencies.” That totals $5 trillion of our $17 trillion national debt, including Medicare and Social Security money owed to retirees.
According to Simon Black of Sovereign Man:
On paper, this looks great. But in reality, they’re setting the stage to default on Social Security beneficiaries without causing a single ripple in the financial system.
Remember, when governments get this deep in debt, someone is going to get screwed.
They may default on their obligations to their creditors, causing a crisis across the entire financial system. Or perhaps to the central bank, causing a currency crisis.
But most likely, and first, they will default on their obligations to their citizens. Whatever promises they made, including Social Security, will be abandoned.
The Social Security Administration publicly states that total trust fund reserves will be depleted in 2033. So if you were born after 1968, you should expect not to receive it.
The way things are going, it could end even sooner.
Here’s another piece of evidence the Fourth Turning is underway…
NSA Fallout
According to Strauss and Howe, during a Fourth Turning, the country’s already weak and distrusted institutions are “destroyed and rebuilt in response to a perceived threat to the survival of the nation.”
Institutions like Social Security, the IRS, and the NSA, the latter of which millennials like Edward Snowden are already busy destroying.
And they’re succeeding, just as the Fourth Turning forecasts.
Just in the past few days, European Union leaders have called for new treaties to govern international surveillance.
French President Hollande has called Obama to protest. German Chancellor Merkel is livid and has called the White House, too, telling Obama she “unmistakably disapproves of and views as completely unacceptable such practices.” Germany’s foreign minister has summoned the U.S. ambassador for a personal meeting. Spain has done the same. The United Nations will censure the illegal electronic surveillance of governments next month.
Leaders from 28 EU nations signed a joint statement last week to warn the United States.
The U.S. Senate intelligence committee has pledged a full review…
Obama has now publicly stated it is time for reform.
Thousands showed up to a “Stop Watching Us” rally last week by the Capitol reflection pool to protest unconstitutional surveillance of citizens. It was sponsored by a coalition of groups from the left and right, including the ACLU, the Green Party, the Libertarian Party, FreedomWorks, and Young Americans for Liberty.
Indeed, the Fourth Turning is underway…
Call it like you see it,
Nick Hodge
Nick is the Founder and President of the Outsider Club, and the Investment Director of the thousands-strong stock advisory, Early Advantage. Co-author of two best-selling investment books, including Energy Investing for Dummies, his insights have been shared on news programs and in magazines and newspapers around the world. For more on Nick, take a look at his editor’s page.